In light of the Jay Cutler trade I thought I didn’t want a post called “be careful what you wish for” at the top of the site anymore. Nothing can possibly go wrong!
As to why the Bears needed Cutler, just check out this graph, with the passer rating of the Bears’ leading QB every year going back to 1990. Jay Cutler’s career average after two and a half seasons in the league is better than all but the single best passing season in that period. In fact, you can go all the way back to the the invention of the west-coast offense, when the passing game really opened up, and the Bears have only put up two better seasons than Cutler’s average.
Maybe it’ll turn out this trade wasn’t wise. Maybe they’d have been better off with the picks, or with Orton, but right now, I’m just glad the Bears have a quarterback.
It was just announced that the Bears will get three compensatory picks in the coming draft for free agents who signed with other teams after the 2009 season. The highest, for Bernard Berrian, will be the 99th overall pick at the end of the third round. The 99th pick is worth 104 points on the draft-value chart GMs use, or about two mid-to-late fourth round picks. In theory, if the Bears wanted to package the pick to move up in the first round, it would help them move up about two spots (assuming they could find a taker). Or they could package their original third-round pick (#83) and move up three spots in the first round while still having a third-round pick. Not that they’ll do any of this, but it gives you an idea of what #99 is worth – not a ton, but it’s not nothing, either.
Another way to look at it is, who was drafted 99th overall the last few years? Here’s what I came up with:
- 2008: Oniel Cousins
- 2007: Johnnie Lee Higgins
- 2006: Max Jean-Gilles
- 2005: Dustin Colquitt
- 2004: Carlos Francis
- 2003: Artos Pinner
- 2002: Jonathan Wells
- 2001: Roberto Garza
- 2000: Gari Scott
Ok, so it’s not a list of luminaries who’ve come out of that 99th draft pick spot. But given that that’s where Garza was drafted, you can definitely find some value there. And if you look at picks nearby, several pro-bowlers have been picked in the neighborhood: Rudi Johnson at #100 in 2001, Brian Westbrook at #91 in 2002, Marion Barber III at #109 in 2005, and Owen Daniels at #98 in 2006. Jerry Angelo has had some success finding gems in the middle of the draft, hopefully he can take advantage of this extra pick.
Update: I had forgotten teams are not allowed to trade compensatory picks. So the Bears can’t trade the 99th overall pick. I’ll leave its trade value in there, though, as it gives an idea what that pick is worth.
ESPN is reporting that Terrell Owens has been cut by the Cowboys. Jerry Angelo already should have made a phone call. There is absolutely no reason for the Bears not to go after him. It’s obvious that Lovie, if not Angelo, is on the hot seat. Owens could become a problem, but the Bears are in a perfect situation to gamble. Pick up Owens, then draft a safety and a couple of offensive linemen and hope everything works out. The worst that happens is Owens blows up the locker room and you don’t get to the playoffs, which is pretty much what’s going to happen if they don’t pick him up, too.