Soriano’s Season WPA

Soriano’s Win Probability Added is now at 1.28 over the first ten games of the season. That’s second in the majors behind Aaron Hill, who is at 1.30 I thought it might be interesting to see the ebb and flow of WPA for Soriano this season. I didn’t start the graph at 0 at bats, so it starts with the result of his first at bat (a home run), which is why it doesn’t start at 0 WPA.


The giant spike there is his 9th-inning go-ahead homer off the Brewers last week. The second-largest one is, of course, his home run yesterday to put the Cubs ahead in the eighth. Since they had another frame coming up to bat in, there was a chance they could take the lead back there, too, which is why yesterday’s home run didn’t add quite as much win probability as the one against the Brewers. In fact, five of the top six win-probability-adding events for Soriano this season were his five home runs. The other? A bases-loaded walk against Jeff Suppan on April 12 that extended the Cubs’ lead. The biggest negative event (good for -.104) was Soriano’s two-out flyout against Adam Wainwright in the sixth with the bases loaded on Thursday.



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2 responses to “Soriano’s Season WPA

  1. baturkey

    How does Ramirez’s homer yesterday compare to those hit by Soriano previously in terms of WPA?

    • Bob

      It’s less, just because the game was tied at the time and the Cubs had a slightly-better than 50% chance of winning the game with a man on first there. The Cubs’ odds of winning went from 56.9% to 100% with the homer. Both of Soriano’s 2-run shots took the Cubs from being heavy underdogs to likely winners. In a sense, the ones Soriano hit were more valuable, WPA-wise, just because there was more “room” left.

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