Visualizing Projections

I’ve taken the four projections Fangraphs offers for pitchers (they offer five for hitters) and charted the Cubs pitchers’ projected Fielding Independent Pitching. I’ll do the same for relievers as soon as the bullpen gets firmed up, and I’m also going to do hitters’ projected wOBA numbers. But today, if you want to see how the pitchers stack up – or how the projection systems stack up in assessing Cubs pitching – here’s what they look like:


As you can see, they’ve got more in common than separating them. All of them would rank the Cubs’ pitchers from best to worst, Harden-Dempster-Zambrano-Lilly-Marshall. I think most of us would put Zambrano ahead of Dempster, but I don’t have much issue with that. Of particular note, to me, is the ZiPS projection for Harden. If that’s right, he’s going to win a Cy Young if he plays enough. None of them are especially bullish on Marshall, either. I think he’s going to do better than the projections think he will, although a 4.6-ish FIP isn’t bad at all – last year that’s right around where Jason Marquis was, and if Marshall could put up Marquis-level numbers for twenty times less salary, I’d happily take that.


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